Confidence in the local police

Published 7 December 2018

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Contents

1. Main facts and figures

• overall in 2017/18, 78% of people aged 16 years and over in England and Wales said they had confidence in their local police – up from 76% in 2013/14
• among the broad ethnic groups, a lower percentage of people with Mixed ethnicity said they had confidence in their local police compared with White people
• in every one of the last 5 years, a lower percentage of Black Caribbean people said they had confidence in their local police compared with White British people

Things you need to know

These figures are based on the annual Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW).

The CSEW is a face-to-face survey in which people aged 16 or over living in England and Wales are asked about their experiences of a selected range of criminal offences in the previous 12 months.

The CSEW is able to capture a broad range of victim-based crimes experienced by those interviewed, not just those that have been reported to (and recorded by) the police. However, some offences such as homicide and sexual offences are not included in its main estimates.

Statistics on fraud and computer misuse have been included in CSEW data since 2015/16. However, as the data shown here dates back to 2013/14, the statistics and commentary exclude fraud and computer misuse offences.

The data measures whether someone was either:

• a victim of at least one crime
• a resident of a household that had been subject to at least one household crime (like burglary)

The data does not measure the specific number of times they were a victim, nor the seriousness of the crime they were victim of.

Keep in mind that all survey estimates are based on a sample of the population, rather than the whole population. This means there’s a degree of uncertainty which is greater when the number of respondents is small. There are usually fewer respondents from ethnic minority groups due to the make-up of the general population – therefore, the level of uncertainty is higher for these groups.

Estimates based on fewer than 50 responses are excluded, as they are considered less reliable.

To increase the reliability of the data when broken down by gender, age group and socio-economic group, 3 years of data have been combined (2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17) and the estimates presented are averages for this 3-year period. This 3-year dataset hasn’t been updated with the 2017/18 data.

The commentary for this data only includes reliable, or ‘statistically significant’, findings. Findings are statistically significant when we can be confident that if we carried out the same survey on different random samples of the population, 19 times out of 20 we would get similar findings.

Differences are statistically significant if the results for the groups or time periods being compared are within entirely different ranges.

The CSEW does not include:

• people living in communal establishments (such as care homes, student halls of residence and prisons)
• crimes against commercial or public sector bodies

What the data measures

This data measures the percentage of the population who said they had overall confidence in the local police. The data is based on responses to the annual Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW).

Respondents were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with 6 statements relating to their perceptions of the local police:

• the police can be relied upon when needed
• the police would treat you with respect
• the police would treat you fairly
• the police understand local concerns
• the police deal with local concerns
• taking everything into account I have confidence in the police

Those who said they agreed or strongly agreed with the statement ‘Taking everything into account I have confidence in the police in this area’ were judged to have overall confidence in the police.

Survey respondents included both victims and non-victims of crime.

The ethnic categories used in this data

Where possible, this data is broken down by the 18 ethnic categories listed in the 2011 Census. There's a separate category for respondents whose ethnicity wasn't known.

The 2011 Census categories are as follows:

White:

• English/ Welsh/ Scottish/ Northern Irish/ British
• Irish
• Gypsy, Traveller or Irish Traveller
• Any other White background

Mixed/Multiple ethnic groups:

• White and Black Caribbean
• White and Black African
• White and Asian
• Any other Mixed/ Multiple ethnic background

Asian/Asian British:

• Indian
• Pakistani
• Bangladeshi
• Chinese
• Any other Asian background

Black/African/Caribbean/Black British:

• African
• Caribbean
• Any other Black/African/Caribbean background

Other ethnic group:

• Arab
• Any other ethnic group

The number of people from specific ethnic categories surveyed (the ‘sample size’) was too small to draw any firm conclusions when analysed by gender, age group and socio-economic group. Therefore, the data is broken down into the following 5 broad groups:

• Asian / Asian British
• Black / African / Caribbean / Black British
• Mixed / Multiple ethnic groups
• White
• Other ethnic group

2. Confidence in the local police by ethnicity over time

• Location: England and Wales
• Time period: 2013/14 to 2017/18
• Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales, year ending March 2019

Percentage of people aged 16 years and over who said they had confidence in their local police, by ethnicity over time

	2013/14		2014/15		2015/16		2016/17		2017/18
Ethnicity	2013/14 %	2013/14 Sample size	2014/15 %	2014/15 Sample size	2015/16 %	2015/16 Sample size	2016/17 %	2016/17 Sample size	2017/18 %	2017/18 Sample size
All	76	35,075	76	33,015	78	34,922	78	34,767	78	34,293
Asian	79	1,805	78	1,626	79	1,770	80	1,927	80	1,980
Bangladeshi	71	137	82	122	77	133	72	165	81	177
Chinese	77	168	77	134	80	171	79	180	78	163
Indian	83	759	81	665	81	712	81	757	82	783
Pakistani	72	397	71	385	75	425	76	492	76	491
Asian other	82	344	81	320	84	329	85	333	85	366
Black	70	946	71	894	73	882	71	999	76	943
Black African	75	555	77	523	79	518	76	611	77	567
Black Caribbean	62	346	60	314	62	303	60	311	71	315
Black other		45	65	57	62	61	69	77	82	61
Mixed	72	336	64	304	72	359	72	369	71	371
Mixed White/Asian	75	80	73	87	76	93	85	105	68	86
Mixed White/Black African		46		44		44	76	56	81	61
Mixed White/Black Caribbean	69	118	68	98	66	132	59	120	67	120
Mixed other	74	92	59	75	72	90	72	88	71	104
White	76	31,725	76	29,917	79	31,627	79	31,093	78	30,658
White British	75	29,836	75	28,209	78	29,685	78	28,831	78	28,420
White Irish	81	319	80	295	80	286	76	292	84	294
White Gypsy/Traveller		12		10		15		21		15
White other	81	1,558	81	1,403	85	1,641	83	1,949	83	1,929
Other	77	232	77	231	81	241	76	345	82	298
Arab	79	88	82	82	80	86	77	140	82	100
Any other	76	144	73	149	81	155	76	205	81	198

Data withheld because a small sample size makes it unreliable

Download table data (CSV) Source data (CSV)

Summary of Confidence in the local police Confidence in the local police by ethnicity over time Summary

This data shows that:

• overall in 2017/18, 78% of people aged 16 years and over in England and Wales said they had confidence in their local police – up from 76% in 2013/14
• among the broad ethnic groups, a lower percentage of people from the Mixed ethnic groups said they had confidence in their local police compared with White people
• among specific ethnic groups, a lower percentage of Black Caribbean people said they had confidence in their local police compared with White British people in each of the 5 years studied
• although the chart and table show other differences between ethnic groups, and changes over time, the sample sizes for these groups are small and any generalisations based on these figures are unreliable

3. Confidence in the local police by ethnicity and gender

• Location: England and Wales
• Time period: 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17 (combined)
• Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales, year ending March 2019

Percentage of people aged 16 years and over who had confidence in their local police, by ethnicity and gender

	All		Female		Male
Ethnicity	All %	All Sample size	Female %	Female Sample size	Male %	Male Sample size
Asian	79	5,323	80	2,688	78	2,635
Black	71	2,775	72	1,614	70	1,161
Mixed	70	1,032	68	598	71	434
White	78	92,637	79	50,400	77	42,237
Other	78	817	78	392	77	425

Download table data (CSV) Source data (CSV)

Summary of Confidence in the local police Confidence in the local police by ethnicity and gender Summary

Three years of data have been combined and the estimates shown here are averages for this 3-year period.

The data shows that:

• a higher percentage of White women than White men said they had confidence in their local police
• although the data shows differences between men and women from other ethnic groups, the sample sizes for these groups don’t give the level of certainty required to be confident the differences are reliable

4. Confidence in the local police by ethnicity and age

• Location: England and Wales
• Time period: 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17 (combined)
• Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales, year ending March 2019

Percentage of people aged 16 years and over who had confidence in their local police, by ethnicity and age group

	Asian		Black		Mixed		White		Other
Age	Asian %	Asian Sample size	Black %	Black Sample size	Mixed %	Mixed Sample size	White %	White Sample size	Other %	Other Sample size
16-24	77	578	61	263	68	211	77	6,273	68	102
25-34	78	1,348	72	536	73	272	77	12,544	83	186
35-44	79	1,523	77	709	65	222	77	13,929	81	225
45-54	78	814	69	639	70	151	76	16,024	74	128
55-64	82	539	75	336	71	90	76	15,390	77	87
65-74	87	352	78	163	86	54	78	15,912	87	62
75+	84	169	77	129		32	85	12,565		27
All	79	5,323	71	2,775	70	1,032	78	92,637	78	817

Data withheld because a small sample size makes it unreliable

Download table data (CSV) Source data (CSV)

Summary of Confidence in the local police Confidence in the local police by ethnicity and age Summary

Three years of data have been combined and the estimates shown here are averages for this 3-year period.

The data shows that:

• in general, a higher percentage of older people said they had confidence in their local police than younger people
• among the Black, Asian, Mixed and Other ethnic groups, confidence in local police generally increased with age
• among people aged 16 to 24 years, a lower percentage of people from the Black and Mixed ethnic groups said they had confidence in their local police compared with White people
• among people aged 25 to 34 years, a lower percentage of Black people said they had confidence in their local police compared with White people
• among people aged 35 to 44 years, a lower percentage of people with Mixed ethnicity said they had confidence in their local police compared with White people
• among people aged 65 to 74 years, a higher percentage of Asian people said they had confidence in the local police compared with White people
• although the data show other apparent differences based on ethnicity and age, the sample sizes for these groups are small and any generalisations based on these figures are unreliable

5. Confidence in the local police by ethnicity and socio-economic group

• Location: England and Wales
• Time period: 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17 (combined)
• Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales, year ending March 2019

Percentage of people aged 16 years and over who had confidence in their local police, by ethnicity and socio-economic group

	Asian		Black		Mixed		White		Other
Socio-economic classification	Asian %	Asian Sample size	Black %	Black Sample size	Mixed %	Mixed Sample size	White %	White Sample size	Other %	Other Sample size
All	79	5,323	71	2,775	70	1,032	78	92,637	78	817
Full time students	79	430	65	221	78	102	83	2,361	72	116
Intermediate occupations	78	1,069	70	484	72	211	78	21,928	74	147
Managerial and professional occupations	78	1,733	70	810	67	364	80	32,406	76	220
Never worked and long-term unemployed	82	594	76	208	69	52	71	2,810	82	106
Not classified	71	52		34		6	71	612		7
Routine and manual occupations	80	1,445	75	1,018	67	297	75	32,520	84	221

Data withheld because a small sample size makes it unreliable

Download table data (CSV) Source data (CSV)

Summary of Confidence in the local police Confidence in the local police by ethnicity and socio-economic group Summary

Three years of data have been combined and the estimates shown here are averages for this 3-year period.

The data shows that:

• among full-time students, a lower percentage of people from the Black and Other ethnic groups said they had confidence in their local police compared with White people
• within routine and manual occupations, a higher percentage of White people said they had confidence in their local police compared with people with Mixed ethnicity, but a lower percentage did so compared with people from the Asian and Other ethnic groups
• within intermediate occupations like clerical, sales and service jobs, a higher percentage of White people said they had confidence in their local police compared with Black people
• within managerial and professional occupations, a higher percentage of White people said they had confidence in their local police than Black people and people with Mixed ethnicity
• among the long-term unemployed, a lower percentage of White people said they had confidence in their local police compared with people from the Asian and Other ethnic groups

6. Methodology

Crime Survey of England and Wales (CSEW) estimates are based on analysis of structured face-to-face interviews carried out using computer-assisted personal interviewing. In 2017/18, 73% of respondents completed the survey.

The CSEW is a household sample survey. Estimates are based on a representative sample of the population of England and Wales aged 16 and over. A sample, as used in the CSEW, is a small-scale representation of the population from which it is drawn.

Weighting:

Weighting is used to adjust the results of a survey to make them representative of the population and improve their accuracy.

For example, a survey which contains 25% women and 75% men will not accurately reflect the views of the general population, which we know has an even 50/50 split. Statisticians rebalance or ‘weight’ the survey results to more accurately represent the general population.

Survey weights are usually applied to make sure the survey sample has broadly the same gender, age, ethnic and geographic make up as the general population.

The CSEW collects information from approximately 35,000 households each year. Since those responses reflect only a fraction of the total population of England and Wales, a process is used to give different weights to different households and individuals based on their sex, age and region, in such a way that the weighted distribution of responding household and individuals in these households matches the known distribution in the population as a whole.

First, weighting is applied to the raw data to compensate for:

• unequal address selection probabilities (given, some areas are more populated than others)
• the observed variation in response rates between different types of neighbourhood
• situations in which only one dwelling unit can be selected in multiple ‘dwelling unit' households
• different probabilities of a respondent being selected based on different sized households

Second, calibration weighting is used to make adjustments for known differences in response rates between different regions and between different age groups.

Socio-economic groups:

The National Statistics Socio-economic Classification (NS-SEC) categorises members of the adult public in the UK according to their occupational status.

The NS-SEC categories are:

• managerial and professional occupations
• intermediate occupations (clerical, sales, service)
• routine and manual occupations
• never worked and long-term unemployed
• full-time students
• not classified

Suppression rules and disclosure control

Estimates based on fewer than 50 respondents have been suppressed as they are less reliable.

Rounding

Estimates in the charts and tables are given to the nearest whole number.

You can see more detailed estimates (rounded to 1 decimal place) if you download the data.

Quality and methodology information

7. Data sources

Source

Crime Survey for England and Wales, year ending March 2019

Type of data

Survey data

Type of statistic

National Statistics

Publisher

Office for National Statistics

Publication frequency

Yearly

Purpose of data source

The main aim of the Crime Survey for England and Wales is to:

• measure people's experience of crime
• give reliable estimates about changes over time

The survey doesn't include all crimes. It excludes 'victimless' crimes (like possession of drugs) and crimes that victims can't report (like murder).

The survey aims to give a clearer picture of the extent of crime than police statistics. It can do this by including crimes that are not reported to (or recorded by) the police.

It can also provide a better indicator of long-term trends because it isn't affected by changes in how crimes are reported or recorded.

8. Download the data

Confidence in the local police - Spreadsheet (csv) 113 KB

This file contains the following: ethnicity, year, geography, gender, socio-economic status, value, denominator

Publication release date: 7 December 2018

full page history

1. 7 December 2018 Updated with the latest year's data (for 2017/18). Bullet points have been updated to reflect the new data.

From: Office for National Statistics

Previous editions:

1. 14 August 2018
2. 23 February 2018

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